Very strong El Nino may be among the strongest since 1950
VOV.VN - After officially forming, El Nino is forecast to have a 60-65% chance of developing into a very strong event, with an intensity comparable to the 2015-2016 episode and the potential to rank among the strongest since 1950.
According to the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the current El Nino has developed relatively quickly. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region reached the +0.5 degrees Celsius threshold in May and rose to around +0.7 degrees Celsius in early June, indicating that El Nino has officially formed.
The meteorological centre said El Nino is almost certain to form and persist from June 2026, continue strengthening through the remainder of 2026 and potentially extend into early 2027. The probability of a very strong El Nino currently stands at around 60-65%, showing similarities to the 2023 event and an intensity comparable to the 2015-2016 El Nino.
If this scenario occurs, Vietnam is likely to face temperatures above the long-term average and widespread rainfall deficits, particularly in the central region, the Central Highlands and the south. The risks of drought, water shortages and saltwater intrusion are therefore expected to increase during the final months of 2026 and early 2027.
According to the meteorological centre, the number of storms and tropical depressions affecting Vietnam is typically lower than average during El Nino years. However, very strong storms capable of causing significant damage can still occur, meaning there is no room for complacency over disaster risks.
Looking back at the 2015-2016 El Nino, one of the strongest events since 1950, the country experienced prolonged and intense heatwaves, widespread rainfall shortages, severe drought and deep saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta. The event also saw significantly fewer storms in the East Sea than the long-term average.
Temperatures nationwide during the final months of 2026 are forecast to be 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, while temperatures from October to December 2026 could be 1-2 degrees Celsius higher. Northern and central Vietnam are expected to experience more heatwaves than usual, with record-breaking temperatures possible.
El Nino also typically reduces rainfall by 25-50% across many parts of the country, most notably in the south-central coastal region, the Central Highlands and southern Vietnam, increasing the risk of localised or widespread drought. However, despite an overall decline in rainfall, record 24-hour rainfall totals may still occur.
The meteorological centre noted that several extreme weather events have occurred during El Nino years, including the historic rainfall event in Quang Ninh in late July 2015 and the historic flooding in Quang Nam and Quang Ngai following Typhoon Ketsana in late September 2009.
El Niño forecast raises risk of extreme heat and severe weather in Vietnam
VOV.VN - El Niño is expected to develop between June and August 2026 with a probability exceeding 90%, bringing an increased risk of extreme heat, drought and severe weather across Vietnam through the end of the year, according to the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting.
El Nino likely to return as northern Vietnam faces weekend thunderstorms
VOV.VN - Vietnam’s weather agency has warned of a high likelihood that El Nino will return from mid-2026 and could grow significantly stronger toward the end of the year, bringing intensified heatwaves and more extreme weather.
